Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Sharee’ (otherwise known as Abu Mohammad Al Julani) announced that Syria will not intervene in the internal affairs of Lebanon, claiming they have no “projects” to be implicated in Lebanon’s affairs.
He adds that if Lebanese people agree on the 14th Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun, as the country’s president, then Syria will support Aoun.
At the moment, many remain concerned about whether developments in Syria will deteriorate and spill over into Lebanon. Al-Sharee’s statement might come as a reassurance to many, alongside his reassurance to Iraq, Lebanon and international organizations that Syrian authorities will seek to build Syria’s political institutions and bureaucratic processes.
This comes after statements calling on Syrian fighters to let bureaucrats go to work, and the assignment of Mohammad al-Bashir as caretaker Prime Minister of a transitional government until March 1, 2025.
Many remain cautious around the uncertainty of Syria’s political landscape after the fall of the Assad regime. For some, somewhat of an “international consensus” regarding the currently proposed transitional phase provides a degree of tightness to the country’s situation, and prevents it from falling into chaos again.
These are some of the questions that remain to be answered in the upcoming period, and will likely impact conditions in countries surrounding Syria, particularly Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.
Lebanon Without a President for Over Two Years: Would the Deadlock Be Finally Broken?
Lebanon has been without a president since October 2022. Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri has announced a parliamentary session on January 9, designed for the election of a president.
Analytically, the assignment of January 9 as a date is meant to provide enough time for political parties in Lebanon to come to a consensus.
There are many names suggested so far in the public sphere, including Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Joseph Aoun.
Others suggest a “moderate” name, that would not trigger any sensitivities in either of the contesting political camps. These include names such as lawyer and previous Member of Parliament Ziad Baroud.
So far, independent Member of Parliament Nemat Frem announced his official candidacy at the end of last week.
On the other hand, the fate of the candidacy of former Member of Parliament Sleiman Frangieh remains unclear. Frangieh was a close ally of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement in Lebanon and the Syrian regime. With the toppling of the regime in Syria, it remains unclear whether he will still run for president.
Historically, back channels and international actors have played a major role in presidential elections in Lebanon, disregarding official democratic processes.
As election date closes in, political actors across the country ramp up their efforts and meetings to ensure an agreement is reached before January 9.