“When will World War III begin” is a phrase increasingly heard for people living in the Arab region and Western Asia in specific. With Israeli forces continuing their genocidal campaign in Palestine and Lebanon, the United States escalating tensions across the world, and Iranian security developments escalating, the region’s state as a hub for boiling tensions and its communities’ status on high alert remain notable.
A Middle East in Turmoil
Iran has been witnessing the biggest wave of protests in its recent history, with people openly chanting against the current Khamenei regime in the context of a worsening socioeconomic crisis, ongoing discontent, and a deteriorating security situation.
The regime’s crackdown on protests has reportedly killed thousands of protests in extremely violent fashion. The US administration via President Trump, in classical neo-imperialist fashion, has threatened to intervene in the country.
The US’s brinksmanship did not land pleasantly on Gulf states and Turkiye, fearing an escalation that will be detrimental for their own contexts. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkiye, and Oman urged Trump not to conduct airstrikes against Iran, fearing an all-out escalation.
Analysis has also pointed out that movements for a democratic transition in Iran could also threaten the authoritarian regimes in the Gulf, whereby a wave of pro-freedom liberation could cascade onto their political landscapes.
The Iranian regime is currently at its weakest condition, following the fall of its allied Assad regime in Syria which it extensively supported throughout Syria’s over-a-decade civil war, the weakening of Hezbollah as a result of the last two+ years of conflict, and an overall counter-wave to the Resistance axis in the region.
However, such a state of affairs does not necessarily mean that an international campaign against the Khamenei regime will prove smooth, as both the regime and its allies in the region did not de-escalate their discourses substantially as well.
Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, continues to present a firm position against Iran’s “enemies” and has recently sent a warning to US politicians to “halt their deceitful actions and stop relying on their traitorous hirelings” via a post on X (previously Twitter).
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to maintain its right to hold arms amid tense discussions on pathways toward the group’s disarmament and the state’s control over arms and national security matters.
Israeli Attacks Continue on Gaza, West Bank, and Lebanon
Further deteriorating the security situation in the region, Israeli attacks continue to expand. Disregarding the ceasefire signed last year, Israeli forces have continued conducting operations, harming lives and keeping up destruction in Palestine across Gaza and the West Bank.
In Lebanon, Israeli operations have escalated and expanded geographically, with multiple strikes targeting the Bekaa region yesterday while attacks against southern Lebanon continue in high frequency, all while Israeli forces continue to occupy several areas in the country.
As matters stand, many are expecting an upcoming US or Israeli operation on Iran, while Israeli expansionist and military operations continue to devastate any path forward for regional de-escalation and stability.
International actors such as European states have repeatedly condemned Israeli forces’ genocidal campaign, but fell short of enacting very impactful interventions that would deter its continuation. With Trump now eyeing Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark and thus the European Union, it remains to be seen whether such a move would trigger a wider counter-US/Israeli trajectory from European states.
Countering US-Israeli expanding influence in Western Asia and the Arab region will also depend on decisions taken in globally influential states such as China and Russia.
All geopolitical developments, from Greenland to Russia-Ukraine and Western Asia and the Arab region, appear increasingly interconnected under the broad titles of national security and the race for strategic political-economic positioning.
