Last week, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs highlighted that 178,817, among whom 52 percent are women, remain displaced across Lebanon as of December 11, 2024.
The overwhelming majority of people have moved from their place of displacement which they headed to as a result of the war. Many have returned to their houses in impacted areas, while others have lost their houses and property or have found immense requirements for rehabilitation.
OCHA’s report comes under the umbrella of the work of the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) in Lebanon, which is led by the Humanitarian Coordinator, and includes a large range of development and humanitarian organizations and supplements national efforts by the government.
Crossings In and Out of Lebanon
The report highlights that close to the end of November, 562,000 individuals had crossed into Syria, while 41,000 individuals had crossed into Iraq. After the onset of the conditional ceasefire agreement, it remains unclear how many have returned from neighboring countries.
It also remains unclear how the numbers of Syrians in Lebanon and people crossing the border changed after the toppling of the Assad regime in Syria and the coming into power of opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
While several organizations, such as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the General Security usually monitor cross-border movement, the sheer rate of mobility has made it difficult to track and provide accurate estimations of the number of people going in and out of Lebanon and Syria.
What Future for the Many Syrian Returnees?
Many Syrians in Lebanon have returned to Syria after the toppling of Assad, while HTS leader Ahmad el-Sharee’ (otherwise known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani) has announced plans for a transitional political phase, beginning with the appointment of Mohammad al-Bashir as caretaker Prime Minister of a transitional government until March 1 2025, and socioeconomic reforms meant to build functional economic activity.
With the country still recovering from 13 years of a grueling civil war, the process of recovery and reconstruction will undoubtedly be an arduous one. The efficiency and speed of such a transition remain crucial to inform the decisions of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.
As many return to Syria from Türkiye, Lebanon and likely other countries, it would be a considerable challenge for many to find adequate employment, shelter and other livelihood opportunities in the country.
As such, the new authorities in Syria will have to face a dual challenge of cleaning up reputational damages done by the radical background of many of their prominent figures and building up just, efficient and sustainable institutions.
If the assumption that Syria remains stable and does not witness another round of hostilities throughout the country, political campaigns against Syrian refugees in Lebanon will likely escalate.
Calls for incitement and violence will probably increase by political groups in Lebanon that have been demonizing refugee presence for the last several years and scapegoating it for the country’s crises.
This does not include areas in the north of Syria where Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed groups continue clashing, and areas in the Southwest where Israeli forces occupy a notable portion of land, not to mention the recurrent strikes that Israeli forces have been conducting across Syria for the last several years and particularly during the last few weeks.
While the people in Lebanon, Syria and the region hope for a more stable, peaceful and equitable reality, there remains a plethora of challenges ahead for the achievement of such desires in the region.