As Israel’s military campaign extends beyond Gaza, into the West Bank, and across the wider Middle East to Lebanonits growing tensions with Syria and Iraq have largely gone unnoticed.
Since October 2023, Israel has intensified its strikes on Syria, aiming to disrupt Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Iran-aligned groups in both Syria and Iraq, part of the “Axis of Resistance,” have increased their attacks on Israel since the war in Gaza began.
This Axis, built over decades of Iranian support, includes Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. The coalition opposes Israeli actions in Gaza and stands united against Israel and United States’ influence in the Middle East.
The growing involvement of Syria and Iraq raises urgent questions about the region’s future. Will Israel’s ongoing war against Hezbollah and Hamas spill over into Syria and Iraq, pulling these countries deeper into the conflict?
While some analysts suggest that Syria and Iraq may try to avoid direct involvement to protect their own stability, others argue that their deep ties to Iran make such a shift unlikely.
As the situation intensifies, there’s no doubt that Syria and Iraq’s roles in this complex scenario are becoming more crucial than ever.
Hezbollah’s regional power play
Since early 2013, Hezbollah fighters have openly joined Syrian and Iraqi forces, helping Syria’s regime regain control of key areas and enhancing the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. Marisa Sullivan, a fellow at the Institute for the Study of War, discusses this in her book ‘Hezbollah in Syria.’
Reports from the Center for Strategic and International Studies support Israeli assessments, highlighting that militants from Lebanon to Iran use Syria’s extensive hiding spots and underground tunnels to transport supplies and personnel.
Additionally, Israel suspects that advanced air defense systems may have been transferred from Syria to Hezbollah, as the group’s expanding missile arsenal and ability to down Israeli drones grow, according to Mohamed Nader Al-Omar’s analysis in The Cradle.
Al-Omar is an international relations researcher with a Master’s in Conflict Analysis and Dispute Resolution.
In Iraq, militias within the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” (IRI), an alliance of Iran-backed Shia militias established in 2023, are also believed to support Hezbollah.
The IRI includes the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of militias within Iraq’s security forces. While some PMF factions remain loyal to Baghdad, many align with Iran and advance its regional influence.
Among these, Kata’ib Hezbollah stands out as a well-armed and powerful militia, designated a terrorist organization by the United States in 2009.
These groups unite under Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” with the shared goal of opposing Israel and U.S. influence in the Middle East.
A year of intensified attacks
On November 4, Israeli jets launched three strikes on Sayyidah Zaynab, near Damascus, hitting a crowded junction, a hotel, and nearby farmhouses. Israel confirmed that it had targeted Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters.
Sayyidah Zaynab, a Shiite shrine with a large Hezbollah presence, remains a key target for Israel due to the presence of Lebanese Hezbollah members who have sought refuge in Syria.
Following the November 5 attack on Qusayr in Homs province, Syria, where Israel struck an industrial zone and nearby residential buildings, the Israeli army stated:
“With the support of the Syrian regime, the Hezbollah terrorist organization endangers the security of Syrian and Lebanese civilians by embedding command centers and forces in civilian areas in both these countries.”
By October 12, Israel had conducted over 220 attacks in Syria, including airstrikes and artillery, resulting in at least 296 deaths, some of which were civilians. More than 100 of these strikes have taken place since January, focusing on weapons depots and Iran-linked groups, reports Al Jazeera.
Syria has launched symbolic mortar attacks on Israel, causing little damage, according to The Washington Post.
Since October 8, 2023, Iran-backed Iraqi groups, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, have pledged support for Hamas in Gaza and intensified their attacks on Israel.
On September 25, 2024, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” launched two drones at Eilat, Israel. One was intercepted, but the other struck the port, causing damage and minor injuries.
Last week, the group fired six explosive drones and cruise missiles toward northern Israel, and on Sunday, another drone from Iraq was intercepted over Eilat, triggering sirens.
The “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” has claimed responsibility for nearly 170 attacks on Israeli targets this year, with over 70 percent occurring in September 2024.
Israel’s expanding military position on the Golan front
On October 15, Reuters reported that Israel was demining and constructing new barriers along the Golan frontier. Some speculate that Israel aims to encircle Lebanon from Syria, potentially advancing through Damascus to the Bekaa Valley.
Financial Times has also released satellite images showing a new seven-kilometer tunnel along the Syrian border, along with the mobilization of Iran-aligned militias in southern Syria.
Rami Abdulrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in an interview with L’Orient Today:
“The Israeli army has indeed dug a tunnel linking the occupied Golan Heights to the part of the Golan Heights that continues to be held by Syria. It has been carrying out incursions there from time to time to make sure the border towns are free of arms, before withdrawing.”
Abdulrahman added that Israel’s withdrawals suggest no intent for a full-scale incursion.
A Lebanese military expert also considers an Israeli attempt to encircle Lebanon from Syria unrealistic, especially with the Israeli army already stretched thin and winter approaching.
“How can an army that has been exhausted fighting a war for over a year in Gaza and Lebanon manage to rush into Syria in order to reach the Bekaa via the Masnaa border crossing? This scenario is pure illusion,” said retired army officer General Mounir Shehadeh to L’Orient Today.
Shehadeh noted the operation would need 50,000 soldiers.
The long-term Israeli objective in Syria
Israel’s military buildup along the Golan front, shifting lines of engagement, and U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein’s calls for deploying international forces on the Syrian-Lebanese border suggest Israel’s intention to widen the war into Syria, Mohamed Nader Al-Omar outlines in The Cradle.
Additionally, Israel’s repeated accusations against Syria for supporting the Lebanese resistance, Hezbollah, despite only providing humanitarian aid, reveal the motives behind Israel’s ongoing threats and attacks, Al-Omar writes.
Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz has directly threatened Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, vowing to change Syria’s political system due to its support for the resistance.
This stance is supported by ultra-nationalist Minister Gideon Saar, who stated, “Israel must make it clear to Assad that if he chooses to harm Israeli security in this way, he puts his regime in danger.”
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has called for expanding Israel’s borders to include parts of Syria, stating in a French-language documentary, “It is written that the future of Jerusalem is to expand to Damascus,” as outlined by Al-Omar.
This was echoed by former Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who recently emphasized at Hebrew University of Reichmann the need to seize parts of Mount Hermon in Syria to establish a new defense line for Israel:
“If Syria continues to serve as a logistical base for our enemies, we will seize the Syrian part of Mount Hermon and will not relinquish it until further notice.”
General Hassan Jouni, a former military officer and political science professor, acknowledged the possibility of a regional conflict involving Syrian and Iraqi militias alongside Hezbollah, but noted it would be difficult to implement, reports L’Orient Today.
“If this were the case, it would imply that the battle planned at the Golan border would take on an outstandingly regional aspect, especially by substituting Iraqi militias for Hezbollah in this region,” said General Jouni.
“Syria tries to avoid war, but Iran ties keep it involved”
Syria and Israel have technically been at war since 1948, with Syria viewing Israel as an enemy. This year, Assad accused Israel of using Iran’s presence as a pretext to target the Syrian army, with strikes continuing as long as tensions persist, according to The Washington Post.
Speculation about an Israeli ground offensive into Syria has increased, embarrassing the Syrian regime, which has distanced itself from the Gaza and Lebanon wars compared to its stance in 2006, according to L’Orient Today.
Despite pressure, Syria has avoided direct involvement in the conflict since October 2023, with a weakened regime reluctant to open a new front.
However, Assad cannot sever ties with Iran, which is fighting Israel, as he depends on its support for both his political survival and access to oil, according to some experts.
“So far, Syria’s sole role has been to serve as a supply route for weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. Yet, the regime no longer wants to get involved. It is letting them get by without it,” said Fabrice Balanche, an expert on Syria issues, in an interview with L’Orient Today.
According to international relations researcher Mohamed Nader Al-Omar, Syria continues to strongly support the resistance, opposing Israel’s attempts to reshape the region and its calls to ‘eradicate Hezbollah,’ as emphasized by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
At the same time, Iran cannot afford to lose its influence in the Levant, as Hezbollah relies on both Iranian and Syrian support. Preserving the Axis of Resistance is key to Iran’s revolutionary goals, prompting Tehran to take significant steps to maintain its presence in Syria, as noted by Marisa Sullivan in ‘Hezbollah in Syria.’
This context is increasingly exacerbating the tension between the Syrian regime on the one hand, and the Iranian axis and Hezbollah on the other.
Iraq’s tightrope walk between the US and Iran
Although Iraq may want to stay out of the current war, it struggles to fully control the armed groups within its borders.
The armed groups within the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” (IRI), which are attacking Israel, are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which is linked to both the Iraqi state and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
While some PMF factions remain loyal to Baghdad, many align with Iran and help advance its regional influence, according to The Times of Israel.
At the same time, Iraq finds itself at a crossroads between Washington and Tehran.
Former Iraqi deputy military attaché to Washington and former spokesperson for the deputy prime minister of Iraq, Entifadh Qanbar, told The Times of Israel:
“The Iraqi government is helpless. Prime Minister Muhammed Shia’ Al Sudani, whom the United States tries to support, can’t balance his relationships between the Americans and Iran. He is too weak to go after the Iran-backed groups because, after all, he came to power from the backing and push of Iran-backed militia.”
Qanbar added, “Another problem that makes these militias more dangerous is that they are overtly funded by the Iraqi government.”
The growing threat of a wider Middle East war
The conflict between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah is showing signs of escalating into a regional war, with various Iranian-backed proxy groups from Syria and Iraq actively involved. If the conflict continues to escalate, regional actors, including Syria and Iraq, may become more directly involved, despite their efforts to stay out.
Reports suggest Israel may attempt to provoke a more overt Iranian intervention, potentially drawing U.S. support and justifying broader Israeli strikes on Iranian military and economic infrastructure.
This escalation could drastically shift the regional balance of power and lead to a prolonged war in the Middle East.