On Wednesday, October 30, Reuters stated that United States (US) mediators are working on a ceasefire proposal that could put an end to the current war on Lebanon, as per two sources with knowledge of the talks.
Throughout the last week, reports of ceasefire talks between Hezbollah and Israel have considerably increased. Today, Wednesday, October 30, United States Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein, and White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk, are visiting Tel Aviv.
According to Axios, the purpose of the visit is to reach an agreement regarding ending the war on Lebanon, which would reportedly end fighting between the Israeli army and Hezbollah in a matter of a few weeks.
Last week, Hochstein had visited Lebanese Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and expressed that the meeting was very constructive toward a ceasefire agreement.
Changing Landscape
Ceasefire dynamics and the overall conflict have considerably changed landscapes as a result of on-the-ground and political developments.
On the ground, the Israeli army continues to suffer heavy losses during its ground incursions on Lebanon which have caused large scale harm and destruction in southern Lebanese areas.
The Rehabilitation Department of the Israeli Ministry of War reported that around 900 Israeli soldiers have been transferred to hospitals since the beginning of ground operations in Lebanon.
Rough estimations suggest that around 100 Israeli soldiers have been killed on the Lebanese front as accurate reporting remains difficult due to the messy nature of the battlefield.
Politically, this was accompanied by a statement by Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, that military operations alone are insufficient to achieve all objectives, especially the release of hostages held by Hamas, and that Israel must “make painful concessions”, which could be a subtle sign of readiness to de-escalate.
Hezbollah, on its part, has repeatedly announced that a ceasefire is the most top priority at the moment.
However, the group assured that as long as the Israeli army continues its attacks, Hezbollah will also continue its operations.
Diverging Reports on the Ceasefire
Reports have pointed to different forms of ceasefire agreements. On one hand, mediators and negotiators are looking into particular mechanisms to implement UN Resolution 1701.
Some would involve Hezbollah withdrawing till behind the Litani river and the spread of the Lebanese Army along the southern borders.
Other discussions focus on the role of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), its capacities, its manpower and the specific mandate assigned to it. Notably, Israeli forces had yet again targeted the UN peacekeeping forces last week when soldiers realized they were being observed by a UNIFIL observation post while conducting house clearing operations.
Negotiations have also pointed to an amended 1701, often called 1701+, which would include a series of additional conditions to the original resolution.
While Israeli authorities were aiming for a series of exigent conditions to impose, the realities on the battlefield, as well internal and external political pressures, might result in a more “equitable” ceasefire arrangement.